METR’s randomized controlled trial (July 2025; updated February 24, 2026) with 16 experienced open-source developers found that participants using AI were 19% slower, not faster. Developers expected AI to speed them up, and after the measured slowdown had already occurred, they still believed AI had sped them up by 20%. These were not junior developers but experienced open-source maintainers. If even THEY could not tell in this setup, subjective impressions alone are probably not a reliable performance measure.
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